The International Monetary Fund has projected Abu Dhabi’s economy to expand by 6% and Dubai’s by 3.4% in 2025, with the overall UAE economy expected to grow by 4.8%—the highest rate among Gulf Cooperation Council nations. The forecasts were revealed by IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Director during a press conference in Dubai on October 21.
The IMF’s revised outlook reflects divergent economic trajectories for the UAE’s two largest emirates, driven by sectoral differences and oil production dynamics. Dr. Jihad Azour, Director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF, disclosed the figures during a press conference organized by the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) in cooperation with the IMF.
Abu Dhabi’s stronger projected growth of 6% is bolstered by improved oil production following OPEC+ agreement relaxation, alongside robust performance in tourism, financial services, and real estate sectors. The emirate’s diversification strategy continues to yield results despite global energy market volatility.
Dubai’s 3.4% growth forecast reflects the emirate’s matured service-driven economy, with significant contributions from tourism, financial services, and real estate. These sectors have established Dubai as a regional hub but face different growth dynamics than Abu Dhabi’s oil-supported expansion.
The UAE’s overall 4.8% growth rate for 2025 is projected to rise to approximately 5% in 2026, positioning the federation as the GCC’s fastest-growing economy. Dr. Azour emphasized that service sectors—tourism, financial services, and real estate—remain the primary growth engines across both emirates.
The IMF’s projections underscore the UAE’s economic resilience and diversification success, with Dubai real estate already crossing Dh525 billion in sales during the first 290 days of 2025. International investor confidence remains strong, particularly as regional property markets accelerate, contributing to broader economic momentum across the emirates.
The forecasts reflect investor confidence in the UAE’s institutional framework, strategic initiatives, and economic policy consistency. The divergence between the emirates’ growth rates highlights Abu Dhabi’s oil advantage while demonstrating Dubai’s capacity to sustain growth through service sector excellence despite market maturation.
